November 28 Monday 2022.

Bloomberg: discounts to Russian oil rose to 39%

After the $33 discount, Russian Urals is selling for $52 a barrel.

So when the EU discusses introducing a $65-70 price ceiling on Russian oil, the Kremlin must be laughing out loud.

Analysts estimate the discount is costing Russia $4 billion a month.

Coronavirus continues to rise in China

The February 2020 record is still a long way off. But the Chinese are already tired of new lockdowns and are actively protesting.

And the demands of the protesters have begun to expand: "We want freedom, equality, democracy, and the rule of law.

And in Shanghai, the protesters are already demanding the resignation of Xi Jinping and even the transition from one-party rule of the CCP to democracy.

Protests have also begun in Beijing, including on college campuses.

Many analysts are already comparing the current events to the 1989 protests, which included the Tiananmen Square tragedy, any mention of which is carefully concealed by the Chinese authorities.

The Chinese authorities are already promising a relaxation of the coronavirus restrictions.

We will be watching how the situation develops, given the crisis of the economy and savings (and the main savings of the Chinese is now cheapening real estate).

- The EU may double the minimum excise tax on cigarettes, from €1.8 to €3.6 per pack.

And they may introduce a tax on electronic cigarettes.

All in the name of tax revenue.

- The Republican Congressman McCall: It was necessary to tighten control over the aid to Ukraine.

However, he said that the U.S. Congress would continue to provide aid to Ukraine.

- The Chinese foreign minister visited Moscow and said what the Kremlin wants to hear:

"China and Russia together promote a multipolar world and do not recognize one-polar hegemony, together stubbornly defend the system of international relations, with the UN at its core, and the world order based on international law, and do not recognize a policy of brute force. This position is on the right side of history and corresponds to the trends of modern development.

But how do these words fit in with Russia's aggression against Ukraine and Russia's gross violation of international norms of the UN? - No way.

Therefore, the words of the Chinese minister are nothing more than the empty sound of an empty mouthpiece.

MARKET NEWS

Online sales in the U.S. on Black Friday rose just 2.3% y/y to $9.12 billion.

And today is also Cyber Monday, which is expected to generate $11.2 billion in sales (+5% y/y).

All told, sales for the holiday season are expected to be $210 billion (up just 2.5% y/y).

Sales, although record in volume, are showing either forced large discounts to free up inventory or a decline in physical sales amid high inflation. I think it's more likely that the first discount effect is working (the Adobe report also shows this).

And many purchases were made under the Buy now, Pay later (BNPL) scheme.

Online purchases under this scheme were up 13% y/y in November, not including the Thanksgiving or Black Friday sales.

The data is weak, but let's wait for market reaction.

FT: Collectible Scotch whiskey is up 20% this year

I should add - collectibles often act as a protective haven for investors during the initial phase of a bear market in stocks. But then liquidity problems, including those of the wealthiest (typical collectibles buyers) get to this segment as well. Since the Fed is not going to stop with monetary tightening, whiskey and other collectibles will surely start to drop in price as well.

Investors flee crypto

Since Nov. 10, $4.1 billion USDT has been withdrawn.

U.S. labor market data will be released on Friday

I wonder if unemployment will rise. More importantly, is the market reaction to the data.

Is it already bad, or is it still good?

The president of the St. Louis Fed, Bullard, will speak today.

He will talk live with reporters about the outlook for the economy and monetary policy about two weeks before the Fed's next interest rate meeting.

Bullard previously shocked the market by predicting a possible increase in the Fed's discount rate to 7%.

With stock markets trading high, Bullard may take the opportunity to scare investors again.

By the way, Powell will discuss the economy in public on Wednesday.

And on Wednesday, the Fed's "beige book" on the state of the U.S. economy will be released.

- This week's report from a slew of cloud companies

Intuit (INTU), Workday (WDAY) and CrowdStrike (CRWD) on Tuesday

Salesforce.com (CRM), Snowflake (SNOW), Okta (OKTA), Splunk (SPLK), Nutanix (NTNX), Box (BOX) and Yext (YEXT) on Wednesday.

Zscaler (ZS), Veeva Systems (VEEV) and UiPath (PATH) on Thursday.

Financial markets

In Asia, stock indices are expected to fall 1-2% as the coronavirus takes its toll.

U.S. 10-year government bond yields are already at 3.65% - investors are running from risk to protection.

The U.S. dollar is getting stronger. Sluggish so far. Commodity currencies are falling hardest.

Oil is falling in price by 2.5% - investors bet on the deepening crisis in China.

Industrial metals are also getting cheaper, which is putting some pressure on gold as well.

U.S. stock index futures are down 0.5-0.8%.

Bitcoin is falling again, but so far without collapsing or updating lows.